“Kings are not born: they are made by universal hallucination.”
George Bernard Shaw (1856 – 1950)
Caroline Shaw, COURTIERS Head of Fund & Asset Management, was invited to speak on a panel this morning at the Portfolio Adviser Autumn Congress (#PACongress16) to debate the question, “Is Macro Still King?”
Caroline’s key points were covered as follows:
US Core Inflation
- Above 2% and has been for a year.
- CPI (consumer price index, without food and energy) will revert to that level.
- Inflation will not stay low.
- Interest rates will rise in the US.
US household net wealth (assets minus liabilities)
- Currently at an all-time high.
- US government debt is high but US household net wealth is much, much higher.
- Look at assets as well as debt.
- Not a low risk asset in the current environment.
- 10 year bond yields in Germany, Switzerland, Netherlands and Japan are negative.
- Equity dividends look a better prospect.
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Warning – the views expressed by Courtiers in this summary and any video and video transcripts, are reached from our own research. Courtiers cannot accept responsibility for any decisions taken as a result of reading this document, watching the featured video or reading the video transcript and investors are recommended to take independent professional advice before effecting transactions. The price of stocks, shares and funds, and the income from them, may fall as well as rise. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns.
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