og desc: Key points from Caroline Shaw, COURTIERS Head of Fund & Asset Management, at the Portfolio Adviser Autumn Congress 2016 - og img: /_assets/img/__news/2016.09.29-Bulletin-Portfolio-Adviser-Autumn-Congress-Is-Macro-Still-King/macro-economy-portfolio-adviser.jpg - share tweet: Bulletin: Portfolio Adviser Autumn Congress 2016 - Is Macro Still King? - twitter summary: Key points from Caroline Shaw, COURTIERS Head of Fund & Asset Management, at the Portfolio Adviser Autumn Congress 2016

Bulletin: Portfolio Adviser Autumn Congress - Is Macro Still King?

29 September 2016     

Bulletin: Portfolio Adviser Autumn Congress - Is Macro Still King?

“Kings are not born: they are made by universal hallucination.”
George Bernard Shaw (1856 – 1950)

Caroline Shaw, COURTIERS Head of Fund & Asset Management, was invited to speak on a panel this morning at the Portfolio Adviser Autumn Congress (#PACongress16) to debate the question, “Is Macro Still King?”

Caroline’s key points were covered as follows:

US Core Inflation

  • Above 2% and has been for a year.
  • CPI (consumer price index, without food and energy) will revert to that level.
  • Inflation will not stay low.
  • Interest rates will rise in the US.

US household net wealth (assets minus liabilities)

  • Currently at an all-time high.
  • US government debt is high but US household net wealth is much, much higher.
  • Look at assets as well as debt.

Bonds

  • Not a low risk asset in the current environment.
  • 10 year bond yields in Germany, Switzerland, Netherlands and Japan are negative.
  • Equity dividends look a better prospect.

 

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