We asked Gary six questions regarding the US Election and the impact of Trump's presidency on global markets, interest rates, the UK following Brexit and how Europe and the wider world might respond.
What’s Going On?
Voters that feel disenfranchised by globalisation and the traditional political parties have chosen leaders that they believe understand their frustrations.
Effect on Interest Rates
If the UK & US governments embark on a programme of fiscal stimulus, including infrastructure spending, which is likely, inflation and interest rates will rise.
Implications for Investments of a Trump Presidency
Trump is a businessman and will want to protect the value of his own properties, therefore, he won’t want to do anything that will seriously harm the American economy.
Impact on UK Following Brexit
A Republican victory is very positive for the UK’s Brexit negotiations because Trump sympathises with Brexit and will take a tougher stance with Europe.
Effect on Globalisation, Free Trade and GDP Growth
Trump is bad for free trade. He opposes lots of free trade agreements and this will be detrimental to the level of worldwide growth.
Was Such Change Inevitable and is it Due?
The Trump victory could change the outcome of the Brexit negotiations and EU policies on border controls.
* AFD is a newly-formed German Euro-sceptic, anti-immigration party that is opposed to nearly all the policies of Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats. Ronald Gläser, an AFD member recently elected to Berlin’s regional parliament, once described Winston Churchill as a “war criminal” responsible for 50 million deaths.
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