Leo asks Gary some of the questions put to us during the Courtiers 2024 Client Seminars (and we’ll be answering more in the new year). Watch Gary respond to key queries and hear him predict that in December next year, James and Jake will be on stage reporting that the Magnificent Seven are lagging the market.
Relative vs Absolute Fund Performance and Last Year’s Summary Points
Gary explains how fund performance is reviewed annually from November to November, emphasising focusing on long-term results and minimal risk. Leo looks back to Gary’s summary slide from the 2023 seminar, to see if what he said still rings true.
Trump, Russia, Germany, France and Geopolitical Policies in the Next Ten Years
We received several questions about Trump and Gary thinks Trump’s transactional nature can be both a strength and a weakness. He notes positive market reactions in the US and concerns about tariffs globally. Gary believes Trump’s engagement with Russia might coincide with a resolution to the Ukraine conflict, benefiting markets. He discusses Russia’s military spending and considers hacking from other countries as a growing threat. Gary shares his views on geopolitical policies over the next ten years.
Bitcoin
Leo asks about Bitcoin’s future. Gary explains the risks and uncertainties of Bitcoin, emphasising that Courtiers cannot invest in anything they don’t understand. He stresses the importance of secure assets and highlights the volatility of Bitcoin, advising diversification to avoid total loss. Contrasting it with the speculative nature of Bitcoin and other high-risk investments, Gary underscores that, in comparison, for Courtiers funds to fail completely, the global financial system would need to collapse.
Overpopulation, AI, the Inequality Divide & Chasing Data
Leo asks why overpopulation is no longer a concern. Gary explains that declining populations are problematic for economies like Japan and Germany, and how future generations may have to rely on AI to support them in their old age, highlighting the challenges of an ageing population and fewer children while supporting identity cards for better AI utilisation. After discussing the impact of AI on inequality and the economy, noting the skewed wealth distribution due to billionaires, Gary goes on to emphasise the importance of diversification in investments and says whether he thinks data-driven businesses are attractive. He predicts increased regulation on data in the future, making it harder for companies to profit from it.
House Building, Affordability, Student Debt – and Might There be a Mansion Tax?
Gary believes building more affordable housing will help young people enter the housing market and boost the economy, and doubts the target of 300,000 new homes by 2029 is realistic but supports the effort. He opposes free education and government-backed student debt, arguing that university education increases earning power, and is unsure if Rachel Reeves will reintroduce a mansion tax, noting the current high stamp duty on expensive homes.
Government Boosting the Economy, Taxes, ISAs and Pensions
Gary dismisses the idea of a £22 billion black hole as political rhetoric. He suggests Labour’s changes to CGT and IHT might encourage spending and boost the economy. Gary is uncertain about the future of ISAs, but notes their historical benefits. He believes the Chancellor’s focus on pension fund performance won’t affect Courtiers’ operations but hopes it will encourage investment in UK assets.
A Declining British Stock Exchange, Economist Debt Warnings and Supporting our Infrastructure Recovery
Gary attributes the decline of the British Stock Exchange to the growth of the American stock market, which now accounts for 70% of the MSCI World Index. He highlights the challenges posed by UK regulations and taxation. Gary dismisses sovereign debt crisis warnings, citing historical resilience and productivity potential. He supports investment in infrastructure, noting the economic boost from government spending due to the multiplier effect. Gary believes fiscal intervention during the pandemic revived economic activity and animal spirits.
Realising Net Worth Assets and Equity Release Advice
Gary explains that equity release schemes can provide access to home equity without selling the property. He advises elderly people to avoid reversion-type schemes and opt for traditional mortgages. When planning equity release, consider longevity. Gary also discusses the valuation of non-income-generating assets, like roads, which are valued based on construction costs rather than income. This can result in an odd valuation system, but infrastructure like roads still holds significant economic value.
Watch the 2024 Client Seminar summaries
Join James Timpson, Head of Asset Management, who talks about Markets and Courtiers Funds in Coming Up Trumps: A Review of Markets in 2024, Jake Reynolds, Asset Management Director, as he talks about Courtiers Investments in Charting the Course: Navigating Markets in 2024 and Gary Reynolds, Chief Investment Officer, discusses economic policy and Government Debt in The Good, The Bad and the Not so Ugly.
If you have any questions to put to any of the teams, please speak to your Courtiers Financial Adviser or get in touch through the Contact Us page.
