James Timpson, Head of Asset Management, was up first in our Client Seminar presentations, covering the markets over 2024 before leading into the returns of our funds, with the celebration that it was a highly successful year for Courtiers investments.
Inflation
James highlighted that inflation, which once reached a 40-year high of 11.1%, was brought back under control. It started this year at 4% and fell below the Bank of England’s 2% target rate (although it slightly increased recently due to the energy price cap being left unchanged). Market volatility on inflation data release days has decreased significantly, indicating a more stable economic outlook. Despite the control measures, inflation remains a key concern for people globally.
“It looks as though inflation is pretty much back under control, and this is also being reflected in markets” – James Timpson, Head of Asset Management
Election Fever
Highlighting that there were over 70 elections around the world this year, James then focused on the UK and U.S. The UK election didn’t really affect the market as a Labour win was expected, and effectively priced in. However, while the U.S. election result may have looked close, it was more one-sided, as Trump managed to win all key swing states and gain a higher Republican percentage in all 50 states. On the day, the U.S. market went up 2.5% and was up by 4% at the end of the month. However, oversea markets reacted differently, with global markets excluding the US down by about 1% due to tariff worries.
“The US market seems to like him [Trump] for now, at least, but overseas markets? Not so sure.” – James Timpson, Head of Asset Management
5th August
5th August saw significant market turbulence, exacerbated by weak U.S. jobs data and Japan’s Nikkei index falling due to interest rate hikes. Despite a chaotic start to the trading day, James emphasised the importance of staying calm and communicating with clients and colleagues alike. More defensive stocks like telecoms were less affected and ultimately, markets rebounded quickly, illustrating that such downturns do recover albeit some more quickly than others. By month’s end, equity markets were back in positive territory, highlighting the need to keep focused on long-term investment strategies.
“Whilst doing my daily Wordle puzzle on the train…Suddenly, instead of trying to think of five-letter words, I’m thinking of a load of four-letter words.” – James Timpson, Head of Asset Management
Magnificent Seven
James updated us all on the “Magnificent 7” US tech stocks, which dominated last year, led by NVIDIA with over 200% gains, with all seven companies averaging at 111%. This year, they’ve grown around 50%, with NVIDIA again leading. However, they’re highly volatile – nearly twice that of the S&P 500 – and more than the FTSE 100. Their significant appreciation has caused notable distortions in the US market, which is covered more by Jake Reynolds in his presentation.
Global market and Courtiers fund performance: the last 12 months
The US market led the globe with a 34% increase, however other equity markets, like emerging markets and FTSE 100, also performed well. Interest rate cuts benefited gilts and real estate, while infrastructure funds lagged due to inflation and interest rate uncertainties. Overall, Courtiers funds saw strong returns: the Courtiers Total Return Cautious Risk Fund was up over 10%, the Courtiers Total Return Balanced Risk Fund up over 13%, and the Courtiers Total Return Growth Fund and both the Courtiers equity UK Equity and Global (ex-UK) Equity funds up in excess of 17%.
All in all, it’s been a highly successful year for Courtiers investments.
Want more Client Seminar summaries?
We hope you enjoyed this Client Seminar summary. If you would like to read and watch more, Jake Reynolds, Asset Management Director, talks about Courtiers Investments in Charting the Course: Navigating Markets in 2024 and Gary Reynolds, Chief Investment Officer, discusses economic policy and Government Debt in The Good, The Bad and the Not so Ugly
We also sat down with Gary Reynolds to answer your questions from the Client Seminar, which we will share with you soon!
If you have any questions or would like to know when we will run the Client Seminars again, please don’t hesitate to contact your Courtiers Financial Adviser or get in touch through the Contact Us page.
